Orange County Housing Report: Oktober-Housingfest Cancelled

Good morning!

The momentum of the housing market has paved the way for cooler Autumn and Holiday Markets.

No End of Year Surge: There will not be a sudden surge in closed sales for the remainder of the year.

It is that time of the year. The days are growing shorter, the leaves are changing, and Halloween decorations have emerged. Autumn has arrived. Just as the seasons change, so does the housing market. The Spring and Summer Markets are officially in the rearview mirror. There’s very little of 2018 that remains.

Housing’s Autumn Market runs from the end of August through mid-November. Typically, this is the season when the active inventory drops along with demand. The Expected Market Time (from listing a home to opening escrow) does not change much. The number of monthly closed sales slows from the highs of spring and summer. They fall from September to October and drop from October to November. Some years’ experience a surge in closed sales from November to December. This surge in closed sales is because of an increase in pending sales, demand, during October, an “Oktoberfest” for housing. Yet, 2018 is shaping up to be a completely different year, and the remainder of the year will prove to be no exception.

The current momentum and market trends have paved the way for a slower end to 2018. There were 2,108 closed resales in September. That’s down a staggering 24% compared to the 2,734 closed sales last year. The last time there were fewer sales dates to 2007 when there were only 1,334. Today’s housing market looks a lot like 2006 in terms of sales.